Schematic depiction of the prediction ranges of various atmospheric models relevant for this work, plotted versus altitude (y) and predictive time scale (x). Prediction over this entire space is the long-term goal of the collaborative Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC).
Schematic depiction of the prediction ranges of various atmospheric models relevant for this work, plotted versus altitude (y) and predictive time scale (x). Prediction over this entire space is the long-term goal of the collaborative Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC).

Objectives

  • To extend the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), as the DoD’s bridge strategy to a future ESPC, from its current upper boundary at ~65 km altitude, to altitudes of ~100 km
  • Use the system to improve the skill and range of atmospheric forecasts, with an emphasis on deep coupling pathways affecting seasonal prediction (e.g. Arctic sea ice)
  • Transition new capabilities to the operational NAVGEM at Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center (FNMOC) if/where they yield improved skill or new Navy-relevant capabilities

Approach

  • Extend HPC global semi-Lagrangian forecast model to ~100 km
  • Add new HPC physics packages to the model that are important at these new high-altitude atmospheric regions
  • Extend HPC Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS-AR) to ~100 km
  • Fully couple the forecast model and DAS to provide forecast-assimilation capabilities over the 0-100 km height range
  • Assimilate new high-altitude observations into the system
  • Validate new high-altitude forecasts against independent stratospheric and mesospheric observations
  • Quantify the impacts on prediction skill at all altitudes
  • Transition new developmental (NOGAPS-ALPHA) components with promising skill impacts into NAVGEM, and objectively quantify impacts using standard Navy forecast skill metrics
  • Close continuous collaboration among the NRL Space Science, Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions

Deliverable/Value/Accomplishment

  • Successful (world first) development and demonstration of a prototype global numerical weather prediction system extending from the ground to the edge of space at ~90 km, known as NOGAPS-ALPHA, which is now informing NAVGEM.
  • 2010 transition of NOGAPS from ~35 km to ~65 km altitude using NOGAPS-ALPHA components, which led to large increases in tropospheric forecast skill (~3-6 hours at +5 days)
  • Completed inaugural operational transition of NAVGEM to FNMOC on 13 February 2013
  • Further, NOGAPS-ALPHA fast ozone photochemistry schemes transitioned to Navy and National Weather Service models