Schematic depiction of the prediction ranges of various atmospheric models relevant for this work, plotted versus altitude (y) and predictive time scale (x). Prediction over this entire space is the long-term goal of the collaborative Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC).
Schematic depiction of the prediction ranges of various atmospheric models relevant for this work, plotted versus altitude (y) and predictive time scale (x). Prediction over this entire space is the long-term goal of the collaborative Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC).

Objectives

  • To extend the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), as the DoD’s bridge strategy to a future ESPC, from its current upper boundary at ~65 km altitude, to altitudes of ~100 km
  • Use the system to improve the skill and range of atmospheric forecasts, with an emphasis on deep coupling pathways affecting seasonal prediction (e.g. Arctic sea ice)
  • Transition new capabilities to the operational NAVGEM at Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center (FNMOC) if/where they yield improved skill or new Navy-relevant capabilities

Approach

  • Extend global semi-Lagrangian forecast model to ~100 km
  • Add new physics packages to the model that are important at these new high-altitude atmospheric regions
  • Extend Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS-AR) to ~100 km
  • Build new ensemble prediction and assimilation capabilities
  • Assimilate new high-altitude observations into the system
  • Validate new high-altitude forecasts against independent stratospheric and mesospheric observations
  • Quantify the impacts on prediction skill at all altitudes
  • Close continuous collaboration among the NRL Space Science, Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions

Deliverable/Value/Accomplishment