Observed and modeled monthly mean global temperatures are compared in the top panel. The model combines ENSO, volcanic  aerosols, solar irradiance and anthropogenic effects.  (Lean and Rind 2009)
Observed and modeled monthly mean global temperatures are compared in the top panel. The model combines ENSO, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and anthropogenic effects. (Lean and Rind 2009)

Objectives
Inform new Navy/DoD mandate (Task Force Climate Change) to incorporate climate change on seasonal and decadal time scales into future operational planning, using state-of-the-art global Earth-system modeling to:

  • Understand how the major natural and human-induced climate forcings combine to yield net climate sensitivities and impact DoD operations, both globally and regionally
  • Define the range of geophysical variability of future climate states and their associated predictive uncertainties
  • Develop data bases of projected climate variability and associated statistics (e.g., frequency of regional extreme events) for upcoming decades in formats easily incorporated into future operational scenarios by DoD planners and decision makers

Approach

  • Use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), state-of-the-art prognostic global Earth-system model to simulate climate, atmospheric, and ozone responses to all major natural and human-induced forcings anticipated for coming decades
  • Perform ensemble and sensitivity experiments, starting from climate states of the present and recent past, extended into future decades under a range of climate change scenarios.
  • Compare and validate the physical model simulations and projections with climate, atmospheric, and ozone observations, via empirical data-based models
  • Thereby quantify the frequency of weather extremes, the sensitivity to climate forcing, as well as ranges of variability and uncertainties of future climate states

Deliverable/Value/Accomplishment
Decadal forecasts from integrated physical and data models of surface, atmospheric, and ozone climatology and extreme events:

  • For a variety of climate change scenarios with different natural and anthropogenic forcing assumptions
  • With likelihood estimated over multiple spatial, temporal scales
  • Condensed into numerical products for efficient integration into DoD mission planning and decision-making
  • To improve the ability of Navy and DoD operations to be protected from, plan for, and adapt to, future climate conditions