COAMPS-TC Recognized as Leading Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model

Radiation Hydrodynamics - The principal emphasis is in the development and application of theoretical models and state-of-the-art numerical simulations combining magnetohydrodynamics, high energy density physics, atomic and radiation physics, and spectroscopy.
Laser Plasma - Primary areas of research include physics underpinnings of laser fusion, high-energy-gain laser-inertial- fusion target designs, experiments and simulations of laser-matter interactions at high intensity, advancing the science and technologies of high-energy krypton fluoride and argon fluoride lasers, advancing the technologies of durable high-repetition-rate pulse power and electron-beam diodes for laser pumping and other applications, laser fusion as a power source.
Space and Laboratory Plasmas - Space research includes theoretical, numerical, and laboratory and space experimental investigations of the dynamic behavior of the near-Earth space plasmas and radiation belts, and the modification of space plasmas for strategic effects on HF communications, satellite navigation, over-the-horizon radar, and UHF satellite communications. Applications-oriented plasma research is performed in the production, characterization, and use of low-temperature plasmas and related technology for applications to advance capabilities across the Navy and DOD. Pulsed-power investigations include electromagnetic launch science and technology and research on directed energy systems for the U.S. Navy.
Pulsed Power Physics - Experimental and theoretical research is performed to advance pulsed power driven accelerator technology in areas relevant to defense applications. Research concerns the production, transport, characterization, and modeling of pulsed plasmas and intense high-power, charged particle beams using terawatt-class hundred-kilojoule pulsed power systems that employ capacitive or inductive energy storage and advanced switching.
Directed Energy Physics - Research encompasses the integration of theoretical/computational and experimental research relevant to DOD, ONR, DARPA, and DoE in the areas of ultra-high field laser physics, atmospheric propagation of intense lasers, advanced radiation and accelerator physics, laser-generated plasma-microwave interactions, and dynamics of nonlinear systems.

Plasma Physics News

basin, cyclone, forecast, model, numerical, ocean, prediction

PHOTO INFORMATION

Download

Details

COAMPS-TC

The left image shows a 42 hour COAMPS-TC forecast of wind speed with Hurricane Delta nearing landfall along the Louisiana coast valid on Oct. 9. The right graph shows a comparison of the COAMPS-TC maximum wind speed forecast (red) with the observed estimate (black). Recently, COAMPS-TC was recognized as the world’s most accurate hurricane intensity model during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season (Jeff Masters, Ph.D.in Yale’s August 2020 Climate Connections).

WASHINGTON – Weather events like hurricanes play a large role in Navy and Marine Corps operations around the world, and the Navy is a huge player in developing world-class weather prediction models.

The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model was named the world’s most accurate in predicting hurricane strengths during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season by Jeff Masters, Ph.D.in Yale’s August 2020 Climate Connections.

“The group of scientists we have work very hard and are committed to developing and improving the Navy’s tropical cyclone models to provide as accurate forecasts as possible,” said James Doyle, senior scientist at the NRL Marine Meteorology Division (MMD). “The COAMPS-TC model is used widely by civilian and DOD forecasters to provide guidance aimed at protecting life, property, and for the DOD to carry out its mission safely.”

COAMPS-TC is operated by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and its development has been supported by NRL and the Office of Naval Research. These three Navy organizations work closely on a new initiative aimed at closing the gaps in our understanding of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

“Numerical and weather prediction models are constrained by their weakest link,” Doyle said. “We are constantly working to make sure all aspects of the COAMPS-TC system are integrated together and operating as well as possible.”

The NRL team provides yearly improvements to the COAMPS-TC system which stimulates new research topics related to hurricanes and tropical cyclones that are still not well understood and need to be addressed to improve the model.

The 2019 hurricane season model was improved through careful analysis of the previous three seasons. NRL reran the model through experiments to methodically test and ensure any change made for the 2019 season improved the model. Scientists picked from a vast sample of storms from around the world including ones on which the model performed poorly.

“We test across many different cases and really try to understand and address the model’s weaknesses,” Doyle said. “But equally important is our team’s commitment to methodical, systemic evaluation that lead to improvements we’ve made to the system through the years that has really paid off.”