WASHINGTON, D.C. –
Daniel Lloveras, a postdoctoral researcher at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), was recognized with the Very Early Career Presentation Award at an American Meteorological Society (AMS) conference on June 23 for his innovative research on Arctic polar lows, which are powerful weather systems.
“Polar lows are these really intense small-scale cyclones that can form in the Arctic,” Lloveras said. “They are sometimes referred to as Arctic hurricanes.”
These cyclones are driven by sharp temperature contrasts between sea ice and open ocean, and the strong winds and waves they produce pose significant threats to strategic operations in the region.
Lloveras’ research addresses the longstanding difficulty in predicting these hazardous storms. “The forecast skill for these cyclones is pretty limited,” Lloveras said. “My research was about understanding the mechanisms for why these forecasts tend to be challenging.”
His findings challenge conventional assumptions. “What I showed with my research is that large-scale processes tend to be more important than small-scale ones for polar-low forecasting,” he said. “That gives us more hope that there’s room for improvement.”
The research carries significant implications for both national defense and commercial interests. “There’s a lot of interest in the Arctic lately from a strategic point of view, and so we wanted to tamp out the potential sources of improvement for these systems,” Lloveras said.
Lloveras’ study marks a first in the field. “No one had really done a study like this before for these Arctic polar lows,” he said. “People at the conference were interested because the particular type of study I was doing, on the theory of forecast error growth, hasn’t been done at all for Arctic weather systems of this type.”
Looking ahead, Lloveras is expanding his work by leveraging artificial intelligence to run large-scale simulations. “I decided to use a machine learning weather prediction model to conduct simulations of about 600 cases,” Lloveras said. “This allows us to give a more broad-brush conclusion about what the source of the forecast skill problem actually is.”
Lloveras was surprised to receive the AMS Very Early Career Outstanding Presentation Award. “Honestly, I didn’t know I was being evaluated for an award, but I felt validated in receiving it because I thought I did a good job presenting the work,” Lloveras said. “The AMS does a great job of recognizing people with early career achievements. It’s encouraging.”
His work highlights the growing importance of Arctic meteorology and exemplifies NRL’s commitment to advancing scientific understanding of operationally relevant phenomena.
About the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
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