The NRL-developed forecasting system assimilates ocean and ice observations from a number of sources and provides sea ice concentration, thickness and drift as well as areas of converging or diverging ice.
Convergence happens when sea ice moves towards each other and becomes more compact. Divergence happens when sea ice moves away from each other.
Palmer’s captain John-Martin Souza credits GOFS’ seven-day forecast for helping the crew safely negotiate the moving sea ice that constantly floats apart, then back together at different speeds and locations.
“With the right imagery and extra support products GOFS provided, I was able to find a way out in only one day, after the previous four days of trying,” said Souza. “Everyone on our ship is grateful for the up-to-date information about the ice conditions.”
The ocean forecast system first released in 2013 evolved to incorporate a growing number of data inputs and a more refined understanding of ocean and ice physics. The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and the National Ice Center deploy GOFS and other tools to enable the Navy and coalition forces to safely navigate the ocean and ice environment.
Maintaining the most up-to-date knowledge and cutting-edge technology are goals the laboratory always strives to meet in their prediction systems, Joe Metzger, an oceanographer at NRL, said.
“NRL continuously improves this forecasting capability through new research and development and extensive product validation,” Metzger said. “The Navy wants and needs a real-time and accurate forecast.”